2013 MLB Preview: Toronto Blue Jays

 

2012 Review

The injury bug had a field day with the Toronto Blue Jays roster in 2012.  Most prominently, their cleanup hitter Jose Bautista got off to a slow start in April, only to heat up and then injure his wrist in July.  After an attempt to come back at the beginning of August, Bautista re-aggravated the injury and missed the remainder of the season.  Brandon Morrow also missed the last two months of the year with an oblique strain.  Factor in injuries to other role players and disappointing seasons from Colby Rasmus, Yunel Escobar, Ricky Romero, and Henderson Alvarez and it becomes easy to see how the team could finish just a few games (73-89) ahead of the Boston Red Sox in the A.L. East cellar.

But my how things changed.

The offseason provided a whirlwind of savvy trades by GM Alex Anthopolous and liberated purse strings by Blue Jays ownership.  The Jays began the offseason by fleecing the Miami Marlins of most of its top talent, netting SS Jose Reyes, RHP Josh Johnson, LHP Mark Buehrle, and 2B/OF Emilio Bonifacio for an assortment of prospects and mediocre bench players.  The club also signed former San Francisco Giants OF Melky Cabrera to a very reasonable 2 year $16MM contract and later dealt their #1 ranked prospect C Travis D’Arnaud to the New York Mets for 2012 NL Cy Young Award winner R.A. Dickey.  By the time it all ended, the Blue Jays had increased their payroll by nearly 50% to more than $122 million.

Naturally, the hopes and expectations among the Rogers Centre faithful will be enormous for 2013.

2013 Lineup

• C:  J.P. Arencibia
• 1B: Edwin Encarnacion
• 2B: Emilio Bonifacio
• 3B: Brett Lawrie
• SS: Jose Reyes
• RF: Jose Bautista
• CF: Colby Rasmus
• LF: Melky Cabrera
• DH: Adam Lind

With apologies to the Los Angeles Angels, there may not be a better lineup in all of baseball than the one that Toronto will trot out on an everyday basis.  The addition of Jose Reyes gives the Blue Jays an elite leadoff hitter that they struggled mightily to find last season.  Melky Cabrera should fit in nicely in the two hole, giving a plethora of RBI opportunities for the 40 HR duo of Bautista and Encarnacion behind them.  Beyond those four hitters, the lineup could fluctuate quite a bit.  Colby Rasmus has the power to be a #5 hitter, but his on base consistency still hasn’t manifested itself.  Brett Lawrie’s power from 2011 was, in large part, missing in 2012.  He has the ability to be a consistent 20/20 player, but is more suited to hit near the top of a lineup rather than the middle.  Regardless of where they hit, the Jays have seven players who could easily hit 20+ HR this season.  The other two, Reyes and Bonifacio could steal 40 bags apiece.

2013 Rotation

• R.A. Dickey—RHP
• Brandon Morrow—RHP
• Mark Buehrle—LHP
• Josh Johnson—RHP
• Ricky Romero—LHP

This unit is significantly upgraded over last year’s ransacked rotation.  Dickey’s power knuckleball, an oxymoronic confection, baffled National League hitters last year and will be a conundrum for his new league’s foes to figure out this season.  The ability of Morrow and Johnson to complete healthy seasons is paramount.  Each one has a checkered health history and neither are sure bets to approach 200 innings this season.  Buerhle’s, on the other hand, is as good a lock for 200 innings as their is in all of baseball.  The veteran southpaw has completed 200 innings in 11 straight seasons, winning 13 games in all but one of them.  His finesse style of pitching makes him an ideal third man in this rotation between the power arms of Morrow and Johnson.  Ricky Romero’s 2012 season was a surprising mess.  Coming off a 15 win, sub 3.00 ERA season, Romero was expected to anchor the 2012 Blue Jays staff.  Instead, he sunk the ship.  At 9-14 with a 5.77 ERA, Romero’s control of the strike zone eluded him.  Given his previous two seasons of success, one has to think the 28 year old should bounce back to some degree.  If he doesn’t don’t be surprised to see J.A. Happ take his spot in the rotation.

Like the lineup, this staff is profoundly different than last year’s hodgepodge of starters.  The major league experience and pedigree of this group should provide a wealth of quality starts to back up an offensive juggernaut.

2013 Bullpen

• CL: Casey Janssen
• SU: Sergio Santos
• RHP: Steve Delabar, J.A. Happ, Esmil Rogers, Brad Lincoln, Jeremy Jeffress
• LHP: Darren Oliver, Brett Cecil, Aaron Loup

Janssen seized hold of the closer’s role in the middle of last season and never let go.  The 31 year old saved 22 of 25 games and pitched to a respectable 2.54 ERA.  If things go awry, a healthy Sergio Santos, the former Chicago White Sox closer, could step in.  Beyond those two, the Jays have an assortment of veteran arms and power pitchers like Darren Oliver, Steve Delabar (who could be a future closer), and 100 MPH flame thrower Jeremy Jeffress.  This group should be solid enough to lock up quite a few victories for Toronto this season.

Five Undervalued Blue Jays Cards

J.P. Arencibia 2007 Donruss Elite Extra Auto RC 

The trade of Travis D’Arnaud to the Mets provided a mega shot in the arm for Arencibia’s future with the organization.  Despite hitting 41 HR over the past two seasons for the Jays, the former Texas Longhorn has come under fire as being a two outcome player at the plate.  Arencibia has always been a streaky offensive player and has maintained an aggressive approach at the plate through every step of his minor and major league career.  Because of that, there is little hope that he will ever approach a batting average north of .250, but the power is oh so very real.  Given a full season of playing time, he could crank 30 dingers this year as the Jays #8 hitter.  Arencibia’s first year autos are in the ugly 2007 Donruss Elite Extra set.  Numbered  to 500 copies, these sell for about $8-10 each.  He also has a growing quantity of autographs in later releases that sell for anywhere from $5-7 each.  For a power hitting catcher on a World Series contender, that’s seems to be a paltry total.

2.) Brandon Morrow 2007 Upper Deck RC Auto

The former Seattle Mariner was cruising to a career season when the oblique injury ended it prematurely.  Still, it seems that the 28 year old has finally harnessed the command of his offspeed stuff to go with his wicked fastball.  Watching Morrow pitch, you can’t help but think that he’s got the arsenal of stuff to be a perennial All-Star.  I think that it will happen for him this year.  He’s got an offense that will score runs for him and seems to have made the transition from thrower to pitcher.  If healthy, he’s a shoo in for 15 wins, close to 200 K’s and perhaps Cy Young consideration.  Morrow has several 2007 autos to choose from, as he was a top pick that year.  My favorite is the one featured above, not because it’s snowing, but because that is actually Jarrod Washburn in the photo.  First year autos of Morrow’s can cost as little as $12 to as much as $25 for his top tier Ultimate Collection auto’ed relics.

3.) Melky Cabrera 2006 Bowman Originals BuyBack Auto RC

Hit .346 and win All-Star MVP honors and the world loves you.  Get popped for 50 game PED suspension and the world thinks you’re a fraud.  So goes the 2012 chapter of Melky Cabrera’s life.  The suspension ended Cabrera’s season and worse, prompted his San Francisco Giants to omit him from their postseason roster during their World Series championship run.  Cabrera’s PED indiscretion cost him tens of millions of dollars on the free agent market.  His loss is Toronto’s gain.  The Blue Jays took a flier on him and will insert him in between Jose Reyes and Jose Bautista in their lineup.  That could mean a monster bounce back season for the 28 year old outfielder.  There is no shortage of skeptics within the card community of Cabrera’s true abilities.  His 2006 Bowman Originals buyback autos and his 2005 Finest auto RC’s can be had for less than $10 each.  Some have even gone for half of that.  I don’t think prices will linger that low for much longer, and a big start to his 2013 season will convert a lot of skeptics.

4.) Aaron Sanchez 2013 Topps Heritage Auto 

The Blue Jays’ top prospect’s first year cards and autos are in the 2010 Bowman Chrome series, but this card just pops!  Furthermore, the sales for these have been routinely in the $4-5 range—and the product just came out!  Sanchez, just 20 years old, is a long way from major league ready.  His first full season at Low-A Lansing gave a glimpse of his extreme promise, 2.48 ERA and 97 K’s in 90 innings, and the work he has to do to harness his command (51 BB).  First year autos of Sanchez’s run at about $12-15 each, which is a bit much for someone so far from being major league ready, however this Heritage on card auto can be had at a third of the cost and is a highly attractive card for any prospector’s collection.

5.) Emilio Bonifacio 2008 SPX Auto

Injuries limited the former Miami Marlin to just 244 at bats in 2012.  That was enough playing time for the 2B/OF to tally 30 steals in 33 attempts.  Speed is Bonifacio’s calling card, but he’s also proven to be a solid hitter if given regular playing time.  In 2011, Bonifacio hit .296 with 78 runs scored, 38 XBH, and 40 SB in 51 chances.  Bonifacio will be 28 at the end of April and is entering the prime years of his career.  His numbers in Miami were in a predominantly pitcher friendly park and a move to Rogers Centre could give him a boost, especially on the artificial playing surface.  As promising as these things seem, he’s not a lock to be a starter on opening day.  Newly acquired utility infielder Macier Izturis will be given every opportunity this spring and his familiarity with American League pitching could give him a leg up in the competition.  Regardless, Bonifacio’s 2008 first year autos sell for less than $5 each, making them an intriguing little value buy for a guy that is just a year removed from some pretty sweet fantasy numbers.

Summary

Increase your payroll by 50% and find a sucker looking to get rid of some high priced talent.  Those are the main ingredients that the Blue Jays brass put into their 2013 hopper. What emerges should be an intensely successful A.L. East front runner.  There aren’t a lot of holes on this Toronto team, though the competition, as we’ve outlined in past articles, will be stiff.  Tampa Bay and Baltimore should provide formidable challenges for the Jays this year, and there’s always that Bronx team in pinstripes that seems to find a way to play deep into October.  Be that as it may, the Toronto Blue Jays are, at this stage of the game, the cream of the crop and seem to be aligned for a 20-25 win turnaround in 2013.  That’s going to be good enough to win the East and just maybe pay proper tribute to this 20 year old memorable moment.

2013 Topps Turkey Red: Here Today, Gone in a Few Hours

10 cards, one auto, $20

Well, not really here today.

Topps pre-released the 2013 version of their Turkey Red product on their website almost a week ago.  For $19.99, collectors could purchase a box of the product that contains 10 cards and one autograph.  Some of the featured autos in this set include the likes of Mike Trout, Yoenis Cespedes, Yu Darvish, Felix Hernandez, Jose Bautista, and 2012 A.L. Triple Crown Winner Miguel Cabrera.

          

          

These mini boxes went fast.

Capped at a limit of 25 orders per customer, Topps sold out of their allotted Turkey Red supply within hours of release.  In the wake of the sales blitz these boxes have popped up on eBay and are commanding prices nearly 100% above their initial sales price.

This installment of Topps’ Turkey Red set is its seventh, and the first since 2010.  The design and layout of these cards has not varied much over the years as it continues to provide a simple but classy looking set that appeals to set builders with its easy to collate 100 card set and player-centered portraits.

The rapid depletion of these boxes from Topps’ website naturally upset some collectors who got in late, especially Canadian customers who were excluded from the initial pre-sale.  Judging from the responses from Topps in the comments section, there should be another sale happening sometime this week.  To be notified of that release, as well as any of Topps’ upcoming releases submit your email on the Topps website.

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Toronto Blue Jays & Miami Marlins Complete Blockbuster Trade

EEEE-AWWWWWW!

Yep, he did it to you again Miami Marlins.  Less than one year after opening a brand new, state of the art, tax payer-levied baseball stadium, Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria executes another multi-million dollar cash dump.

Tuesday, the Miami Marlins sent Jose Reyes, Josh Johnson, Mark Buerhle, Emilio Bonifacio, and John Buck to the Toronto Blue Jays in exchange for Yunel Escobar, Henderson Alvarez, John Buck, and a slew of prospects headlined by OF Jake Marsnick, RHP Justin Nicolino, and SS Adeiny Hechevarria.

On the surface, and in many layers beyond, the trade is an another feather in the cap for Alex Anthopoulos regime, and it makes the Toronto Blue Jays instant contenders in an already tight AL East.  For the Marlins, it’s another Jeffrey Loria bait and switch kick in the teeth that will set the organization back at least another 3-5 years.

This article, however, is not intended to fling more mud at someone who is arguably the worst owner in baseball, there are plenty other articles that can do that much better.  Rather, let’s focus on what this deal does for the pieces involved.

Jose Reyes

This jersey coming to a third world country near you!

For the first time in his career, the 29 year old shortstop will be headed to a hitter’s park in Rogers Stadium. Reyes will fit in nicely atop the Blue Jays lineup and enjoy the presence of Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion hitting a couple of spots behind him.  Reyes had a solid offensive season in 2012, hitting .287 with 60 XBH (including 11 HR), 57 RBI 86 runs scored and 40 SB.  The numbers were down from his previous seasons with the Mets, however, where he hit as high as .337 and scored more than 100 runs on an annual basis.  I think this is going to once again become the trend.  He’ll hit on an artificial turf stadium where the ball flies well, scoots fast through the infield and through the alleys. A line of .300 with 70 XBH, 110 runs scored, and 45 SB is quite attainable.

Josh Johnson & Mark Buerhle

Um, not any more

The righty-lefty tandem will probably fit into the number 2 and 4 spots of the rotation joining LHP Ricky Romero and RHP Brandon Morrow.  Typically, a pitcher headed from a pitcher’s park in the NL to a hitter’s park in the AL, would set off flashing warning lights and sirens screaming ATTRITION.  However, both Johnson and Buehrle do well in forcing ground ball outs and both work quickly, controlling the pace of the game.  I don’t expect that Josh Johnson’s sub-3.00 ERA’s of the past will return, nor Buehrle’s 19 win season of 2002.  The tandem should be able to deliver a slew of quality starts, though, and will churn out close to 400 innings between them.  That’s a marked improvement over the production that newly departed Henderson Alvarez and the conglomerate of Kyle Drabek, Carlos Villenueva, and Aaron Laffey were able to produce last season.

 

 

Biggest Blue Jay Benefactor: BRETT LAWRIE

Big things were expected from the British Columbia native last season after his immensely successful rookie campaign in 2011.  At a glance, Lawrie’s numbers were not bad (.273 11 HR  48 RBI  13 SB  73 runs scored, though this is marginally more production than he put up in a third of as many games in the prior season.  I believe a big culprit, besides nagging injuries, was that he was miscast as the Blue Jays leadoff hitter for much of the regular season.  That problem has now been fixed in a big way.  Reyes’ presence at the top of Toronto’s lineup means that Lawrie will most likely slide down into the #2 spot in the order, behind the speedy Reyes, and power arsenal of Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion.

Brett Lawrie may NEVER see a breaking ball again.

More fastballs near the strike zone is a very good thing for an aggressive hitter like Lawrie. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the power numbers he flashed in 2011 come back in 2013 (20-25 HR?), and his average should climb another 10-15 points as well.

What the Marlins Got

Yunel Escobar and Henderson Alvarez will be mainstays in the roto-tilled Marlins roster.  Both players are decent enough to make most teams’ 25 man active roster, but this deal centers around the prospects coming to Miami from the Blue Jays.

Jake Marisnick OF

Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
DUN	FSL	.263	65	266	41	70	18	7	6	35	120	26	55	10	5	.349	.451	.800
NH	EAS	.233	55	223	25	52	11	3	2	15	75	11	45	14	4	.286	.336	.622
Minors		.249	120	489	66	122	29	10	8	50	195	37	100	24	9	.321	.399	.719

The 6-4 200 lb. former third round pick by the Blue Jays has the highest ceiling of the prospects and was ranked as Toronto’s #3 overall prospect by Baseball America for 2012.  Marisnick’s athleticism and five tools skill set has drawn comparisons to Blue Jays outfielder Anthony Gose, who was ranked just ahead of him on the list.  His fielding skills are slightly more developed than his bat right now, as his speedy, athletic frame and strong arm makes him a bonafide center or right fielder.  There’s belief that Marisnick will add more bulk to his frame, and his swing produces natural backspin on a ball.  That should translate into increased power numbers down the road.

Key Jake Marisnick Cards:

• 2009 Donruss Elite Extra Turn of the Century Auto (#/819)
• 2011 Bowman Chrome Prospects
• 2012 Bowman Chrome Prospects Auto

 

Adeiny Hechavarria

Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
LAS	PCL	.312	102	443	78	138	20	6	6	63	188	38	86	8	2	.363	.424	.788
Minors		.312	102	443	78	138	20	6	6	63	188	38	86	8	2	.363	.424	.788
MLB		.254	41	126	10	32	8	0	2	15	46	4	32	0	0	.280	.365	.645

Yunel Escobar is merely Miami’s stopgap at shortstop while Hechavarria puts the finishing touches on his development.  The 22 year old from the Cuba split time last year with the Blue Jays’ AAA affiliate Las Vegas and with the major league club.  As you can see, the numbers from Vegas were excellent, but the Pacific Coast League is chocked full of hitter-friendly venues.  Scouts believe that Hechavarria will hit for a decent average at the big league level, as he has fast hands and a compact swing, but his smallish 5-11 180 lb. frame won’t render big power numbers.  Adeiny’s standout tool is his superb defensive ability, which should allow for him to remain at SS throughout his playing days.

Key Adeiny Hechavarria Cards:

• 2010 Bowman Chrome Prospects Auto
• 2010 Bowman Platinum Prospects Refractor Auto
• 2011 Limited International Flair Signatures

 

Jusitn Nicolino

Team	League	W	L	ERA	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	GO/AO	AVG
LAN	MID	10	4	2.46	28	22	0	0	0	124.1	112	41	34	6	21	119	1.64	.241
Minors		10	4	2.46	28	22	0	0	0	124.1	112	41	34	6	21	119	1.64	.241

The lanky left-hander was a 2nd round pick in 2010 and was ranked as the 5th overall prospect in the Blue Jays organization for 2012.  His first crack at full season ball didn’t disappoint.  Nicolino’s fastball sits between 90-92 MPH, but can reach 94 on occasion.  Unlike many young pitchers, he has a highly developed change with late fade and excellent depth that could be a plus pitch for him at the major league level.  He made great strides with his curveball, which should also be a quality pitch against major league hitters.  While not overpowering, Nicolino does pitch agressively on the inner half of the plate with his hard stuff and can locate his soft stuff well on the outer parts of the strike zone.  While he’s not a #1 pitcher, he does profile well in the middle of a big league rotation.

Justin Nicolino’s Key Cards:

• 2010 Donruss Elite Extra Auto (#/399)
• 2011 Donruss Elite Extra Back to the Futre Auto (#/450)
• 2012 Bowman Chrome Prospects
• 2012 Onyx Platinum Prospects Auto (#/135)